Mobile Survey Shows Bernie in the Lead, Trump Losing Share

Mobile is the new way to survey Americans

Survey stats: We polled 700 Americans after the New Hampshire Debates
What we discovered: Hillary Clinton lost her lead, and Donald Trump lost ground– despite attending the debate
Most surprising:  90% plan on voting in November, but 46% say their decision can be swayed. And the majority of participants believed the Panthers would win.

We reached out to over 2000 Americans via their mobile phone to see who tuned into this weeks Democratic and Republican debates. Of them, 700 (36%) answered our questions on who is most electable, the key issues they care about, and how this week’s debates will affect their decision in November’s election.

700 Americans completed our mobile survey in a few hours, here’s the breakdown by gender, age, and political affiliation:

Gender

  • 58% female
  • 42% male

Age

  • 18% 18-34
  • 32% 25-34
  • 22% 35-44
  • 16% 45-54
  • 12% >54

Affiliation

  • 34% Republican
  • 39% Democrat
  • 27% Independent

1) Do the debates matter? 

  • 44% – Yes they allow the public to know where the candidate stand
  • 36% – Yes, but feel politicians change their tactics to get votes
  • 16% – No, because politicians will say anything to get elected
  • 4% – No, there are better ways to get their message out

2) How did the Democratic candidates do?

Of those 544 who watched the Democratic debate;

53% felt that prior to the Democratic, Hillary Clinton was the leading candidate, compared to 47% for Bernie Sanders. Prior to that, our Iowa poll showed Hillary commanding 62% of the lead.

After the town hall, who did the voters believe was “most electable”?

  1. Hillary Clinton – 47%
  2. Bernie Sanders – 53%

Secretary of State Clinton lost ground again in our poll, and Bernie Sanders is now the most electable candidate – as determined by respondents across the country.

3) Trump lost ground in Iowa, did he regain momentum in New Hampshire?

Ted Cruz scored a remarkable victory in Iowa, and our poll showed him gaining ground after the debate.

After the New Hampshire debate, the most electable candidate is still Trump as stated by 34% of respondents. But that’s a drop of 5 points – and NOT just in New Hampshire as our respondents were randomly selected to participate on their mobile phone from across the country. Here’s who the 564 participants who watched the Republican debate believed is the most electable candidate:

  1. Donald Trump – 34%
  2. Ted Cruz – 21%
  3. Marco Rubio – 12%
  4. Ben Carson – 11%
  5. Jeb Bush – 9%
  6. Chris Christie – 7%
  7. John Kasich – 5%

4) What are the important topics for the election?

Among 12 categories presented to respondents, the usual suspects in the lead are the Economy & Healthcare (tied 1st) Education, and Taxes (tied 2nd). We added two new categories – “Legalization of Marijuana” and “Sports Betting” to see how important they were to likely voters:

  1. Economy
  2. Healthcare
  3. Taxes
  4. Education
  5. Government Spending
  6. Immigration
  7. Gun Control
  8. Public Safety
  9. Environment
  10. Foreign Policy
  11. Legalization of Marijuana
  12. Abortion
  13. Religion
  14. Sports Betting

5) What’s the impact on future voting choices? Is there any effect on November election? Candidates should take note.

  • 90% of respondents plan on voting in November
  • 54% say they know who they will vote for
  • 26% say that their decision can be swayed
  • 20% still don’t know

There’s a lot of time between now and then, and a lot of votes that can be won – or lost, depending on your performance (or failure to appear) in the upcoming debates.

6) Mobile phones are the new way to survey to gain the opinions of Americans on the election – and anything else you’d want to know

We surveyed over 2000 Americans in just a few hours to reach 700 respondents who watched at least one of the debates.

We found that the majority -49%- of likely voters in our survey thought the Carolina Panthers would win, compared to 40% for the Broncos. The other 11% still gave the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals a chance. Maybe it’s not to late for some of the candidates who recently dropped out to make another run.

Traditional polling relies on in-person interviews, or phone calls that take 15-20 min. However, many Americans across all age groups rely on their cell phones as their primary means of communication (57%), and many have even switched to wireless-only (41%).

For more on this survey, and to customize the results views by question or answer, check out the results here.

6 Takeaways from The Iowa Debates

Mobile is the new way to survey Americans

Survey stats: We polled 1200 Americans on the Democratic Town Hall and GOP Debate
What we discovered: Hillary Clinton lost over 14 points, and Donald Trump lost over 28 – giving up ground to other candidates
Most surprising:  Despite losing 28 points, Trump still favored nearly 2-1 over next closest candidate, Ted Cruz

We reached out to over 3500 Americans via their mobile phone to see who tuned into this weeks Democratic and Republican debates. Of the 1200 (35%) respondents, here’s how the key stats on who is most electable, what the voters care about, and how this week’s caucus may affect November’s election.

We reached 1200 Americans in a few hours via their mobile device, here’s the breakdown by gender, age, and political affiliation:

Gender

  • 60% female
  • 40% male

Age

  • 21% 18-34
  • 31% 25-34
  • 22% 35-44
  • 14% 45-54
  • 12% >54

Affiliation

  • 33% Republican
  • 41% Democrat
  • 26% Independent

1) Do the debates matter? 

  • 45% – Yes they allow the public to know where the candidate stand
  • 32% – Yes, but feel politicians change their tactics to get votes
  • 17% – No, because politicians will say anything to get elected
  • 5% – No, there are better ways to get their message out

2) How did the Democratic candidates do?

Of those who watched the Democratic debate on Monday, January 25th;

62% felt that prior to the Democratic, Hillary Clinton was the leading candidate, compared to 29% for Bernie Sanders, and 9% for Martin O’Malley

After the town hall, who did the voters believe was “most electable”?

  1. Hillary Clinton – 48%
  2. Bernie Sanders – 40%
  3. Martin O’Malley – 12%

Secretary of State Clinton lost ground to both candidates, and Bernie Sanders is within striking distance – as determined by respondents across the country.

3) Trump may have made a mistake by skipping the debate…will it matter in the long run?

That depends on how you look at the numbers across all respondents – Yes, Mr. Trump was the “leading candidate” as stated by 66.5% of respondents across the country. The next closest was Ted Cruz at a meager 10%.

After the debate, the most electable candidate was still Trump as stated by 38% of respondents. But that’s a drop of 28 points – and NOT just in Iowa as our respondent were randomly selected to participate on their mobile phone from across the country.

  1. Donald Trump – 38%
  2. Ted Cruz – 18%
  3. Marco Rubio – 11%
  4. Ben Carson – 10.8%
  5. Jeb Bush – 10%
  6. Rand Paul – 6%
  7. Chris Christie – 3%
  8. John Katich – 2%

4) What are the important topics for the election?

Among 12 categories presented to respondents, the usual suspects in the lead are the Economy & Healthcare (tied 1st) Education, and Taxes (tied 2nd).

  1. Economy
  2. Healthcare
  3. Education
  4. Taxes
  5. Government Spending
  6. Immigration
  7. Gun Control
  8. Public Safety
  9. Environment
  10. Foreign Policy
  11. Abortion
  12. Religion

5) What’s the impact on future voting choices? Is there any effect on November election? Candidates should take note.

  • 82% of respondents plan on voting for their party’s candidate
  • 54% state they know who they will vote for
  • 25% say their vote can be changed
  • 20% still don’t know

As for November:

  • 5% say they know who they will vote for
  • 2% say that their decision can be swayed
  • 3% still don’t know

There’s a lot of time between now and then, and a lot of votes that can be won – or lost, depending on your performance (or failure to appear) in the upcoming debates.

6) Mobile phones are the new way to survey to gain the opinions of Americans on the election

We surveyed over 3500 Americans in just a few hours to reach 1200 respondents who watched at least one of the debates. While traditional polling houses relies on in-person interviews, or phone calls that take 15-20 min. However, many Americans across all age groups rely on their cell phones as their primary means of communication (57%), and many have even switched to wireless-only (41%).

For more on this survey, and to customize the results views by question or answer, check out the results here.

The Great Oscars Debate

#OscarsSoWhite: It all started from one little tweet

Survey stats: We surveyed 765 Americans on the Oscars, and got results in under 1 hour
What did we discover: A surprising number of Americans believe that racism, sexism, and other biases exist behind the silver screen.
Most surprising:  The Oscar controversy started on Twitter, but only 7% of Americans found out about it on Twitter.


Each year, millions of Americans tune into the Oscars – the annual awards ceremony hosted by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences – to see who will win awards for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, Best Animated Feature Film, and more obscure awards like the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award, and the Gordon E. Sawyer Award.

Haven’t seen too much on Twitter about those, nonetheless, they are still awards of merit.

82% of Americans surveyed are movie-goers, and we asked them their thoughts on the Oscars, here’s what we discovered, in under 1 hour, using the Pollfish mobile survey network.

  • 50% have watched the Oscars in the past, and of those
  • 73% will watch or record it again this year.

Of those who haven’t watched the Oscars in the past, 20% are showing some interest this year as they will plan to watch it live, record it, or at least indicated they wanted to hear the results the next day.

Maybe Chris Rock is pulling in a new audience.

Oscar Controversy – The boycott is real

40% of those surveyed are familiar with the controversy.

The remainder are not, or simply don’t care.

Where did you hear about it, America?

Of those who heard about the controversy, only 7% found out on Twitter – where it all began with the almost infamous tweet, from Chris Rock: “The #Oscars. The White BET Awards” which launched an almost-as-infamous hashtag #OscarsSoWhite. Get the official-unofficial timeline here.

The majority of us found out about this on other media outlets like

  • Television (34%)
  • Facebook (21%)
  • Websites (14%)
  • Radio (12%)

– and a few of us even talked to people 6%, or at least overheard someone talking about it, or spoke about it so loudly by the office water cooler that perhaps prompted some of us (4%) to read about it in a newspaper.

So, we now know that Americans get their breaking news on Twitter from other sources.

Does it even matter?

16% of those aware of the calls for an Oscars “boycott” stated that it changed their opinion of Hollywood – with comments ranging from “I think they are being racist in a big way” to “it has brought to my attention that there is also a lack of diversity behind the camera”.

What’s the real issue?

Nearly 15% believe the Oscars are skewed to begin with, so we wanted to know more about the perception of bias in Hollywood:

  • 52% think there is RACIAL bias in Hollywood, or are unsure.
  • 58% think there is GENDER bias, or are unsure.
  • 58% believe there is SEXUAL ORIENTATION bias, or are unsure.

Still, 59% believe that an A-lister boycott won’t change a thing, or are unsure.

Guess we’ll have to watch TV to find out what was breaking on Twitter about what’s happening at the live television event.

 

For more on this survey, and to customize the results views by question or answer, check out the results here.

The Road to Super Bowl 50

Americans & Canadians pick SuperBowl teams, favorite commercials, and whether or not fantasy sports sites should be legal.

We surveyed 1425 Americans and Canadians – a whopping 66% (943) reported they plan to watch the SuperBowl this year. 73% in the US – what else could they be doing on February 7th?

As for why so many people watch the SuperBowl, 30% want to see a good game, nearly 8% want to know the final score. A whopping 32% are purely in it for the commercials and half time show. A staggering 25% want to just hang out with family/friends.

Canadians watch football? Really?

A surprising 37% of Canadians surveyed will watch the SuperBowl, despite having their own 9-team Canadian Football League, highlighted by Canada’s largest annual sports and television event – the Grey Cup.

Where will people watch from?

The majority of respondents will watch at home (67%) vs a friend’s house (16%) or a bar (9%).
Only 7% care to watch with their relatives. Which was consistent for all age groups (14-17, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, >54).

Sorry Grandpa and Grandma.

The best team always wins…

The majority of those surveyed (64%) picked a clear winner for the AFC & NFC Championship games, though, not with great accuracy. Most thought that the New England Patriots (33%) and Carolina Panthers (44%) would win.
Over a third didn’t care to pick a winner, feeling that “the best team always wins”, that it’s more important to use the time as a social gathering – or didn’t care about the results at all.

41% of those surveyed admit they plan on making a friendly wager. Perhaps the rest just don’t have a plan.

So What Are People Going To Bet On?

  • 40% said the final score.
  • 10% are in a “box pool”.
  • 9% on who will score first.
  • 7% on the coin toss.
  • 5% on who a fantasy sport site.
  • And 18% are betting on whatever they think they can win.

I hope they bring a lot of singles.

Should Fantasy Sports Sites be Legal?

Of all who responded (809), nearly 42% felt that fantasy sports sites (like Fan Duel and Draft Kings) should be legal, and 40% were not sure.

Only 18% were adamant that the sites should be made illegal. Tell that to the NY State Attorney General. Power to the People.

Advertisers, listen up! 

Our final two questions focused on “favorite commercials of all time” and “the brand I would most like to see create a commercial for the Super Bowl”. Budweiser and Doritos appeared to dominate the consciousness here.

  • 47% say commercials are “memorable if they are creative/funny”
  • 14% said commercials made them remember the brand
  • Over 14% say they make them look up a product online/go out and buy
  • 10% want to share the commercials with their social networks

Only 14% said that commercials had no effect. Apparently your $4.8M for a 30-second spot is doing something.

For more on the survey, or to analyze the results by gender, age or location, visit the results page here.

The Ebb and Flow of the Political Tide

Pollfish is leveraging the world’s largest consumer survey network to deliver results that are timely, accurate, and come at a much lower cost than other comparable methods.

In this critical presidential election year in the United States, Pollfish has teamed up with our friends Sharad Goel and Tobias Konitzer at Stanford, and David Rothschild at Microsoft Research and PredictWise to monitor the American public’s opinion on 11 key political issues. The project is described in detail at PredictWise.

We will survey 1,000 Americans weekly on important issues including Abortion, Discrimination, Income Inequality, Gun Control, Immigrants, Foreign Policy, Maternity Leave, Medicare, Government Regulation, Taxes, and Global Warming to gather the most up-to-date information on voters’ policy attitudes.

Rothschild added that “the Pollfish technology is going to help us learn new and meaningful things about public opinion and the effect of the multi-billion dollar election campaign on it.”

Key findings and results will be posted here, which will display the accuracy, speed, and efficiency of the Pollfish in-application survey network to gather public opinion.

 

 

Why do last minute Christmas shoppers wait so long?

Is it procrastination, or part of some plan to get the best offers out there?

We surveyed 535 last minute shoppers on December 23rd to find out why they waited so long, what they are looking for, and what the rest of the world was doing while they were off shopping:

  • A surprising 50% of people were not finished with all of their shopping just two days before Christmas, leaving them with one day left to complete their lists.
  • Interestingly enough, over 2% of respondents admitted that “their spouse does all the shopping”.
  • Nearly 25% hadn’t started shopping or were so far behind they were panicky. Luckily, they had enough time to take our survey – which generated 535 results in under an hour.
  • Of those who waited, 30% were “waiting for deals”.
    • 30% didn’t know what to get people.
    • And nearly 30% had put off shopping because they were just too busy.
    • The remainder of the respondents (11%) just loved to last-minute shop.

For more details, see survey the results here.

 

 

Waiting in line all night for Black Friday deals

Black Friday is the day following Thanksgiving Day in the United States (the fourth Thursday of November). Since the early 2000s, it has been regarded as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season in the US, and most major retailers open very early (and more recently during overnight hours) and offer promotional sales.

At Pollfish we wanted to drill down and learn more about that, so find below some key takeaways based on age:

  • Consumers aged 18-24 are the biggest fans of Black Friday Shopping across all age groups
    • 82% of them said they are planning to engage in some form of Black Friday shopping this year
    • Nearly a third of them plan to wait in line all night for deals
    • Walmart was selected as the favorite Black Friday retailer
    • They also are big spenders: 1 in 5 of them shared they are going to spend more than $2000 on Black Friday
  • Consumers aged 54+ are the biggest fans of Cyber Monday across all age groups
    • 85% of them said they are planning to go to engage in some form of Black Friday shopping this year
    • 57% of them said they are planning to spend more than $2000 on Cyber Monday and they do not have specific preferred online retailers
  • When asked respondents if they had to choose to shop on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, which day would they be more willing to shop, all of the age groups picked Black Friday except the 45-54 year old group.

Read more…

Millennials take on Thanksgiving platter

Thanksgiving Day, a national holiday celebrated in Canada and the United States as a day of giving thanks for the blessing of the harvest and of the preceding year. It is celebrated on the second Monday of October in Canada and on the fourth Thursday of November in the United States. Several other places around the world observe similar celebrations however nobody knows how this tradition has affected Millennials?

At Pollfish we wanted to drill down and learn more about that, so find below some key takeaways based on age:

  • More older adults prefer the traditional way to cook turkey.
  • Millennials (people who are 18-34 years old in 2015, according to the Pew Research Center) are the least happiest generation on Thanksgiving, compared to other generations. This generation has the lowest percentage of people who do not have any Thanksgiving headache.
  • Millennials prefer a Thanksgiving platter while the rest of the generations like turkey sandwich when it comes to their favorite Thanksgiving leftover
  • Millennials like to sleep off the meal as the best post-Thanksgiving activity
  • Adults aged 35-44 have the most people said prepping for Black Friday shopping is their post-Thanksgiving dinner tradition

Read more…

Monetizing upon unpredictability and variety of rewards

The influence of unpredictability and variety of rewards can be seen in many aspects of a human’s every day life and can drive behaviour towards specific actions. This technique had been deeply studied in the early 50’s and was successfully applied in video games the years that followed, proving that it can also be a great drive of monetization for mobile games or apps if properly embedded in the initial game or app’s design.

Back in early 50’s B.F. Skinner used an operant conditioning chamber (known as Skinner Box) to perform experiments and study behaviour conditioning (training) by teaching a subject animal to perform certain actions (like pressing a lever) in response to specific stimuli, such as a light or sound signal in exchange for a reward (food, stop the sound signal etc.). These experiments showed that subject animals that were receiving each time the same reward (for example the exact same food) were initially excited repeating the same action many times, however as time was passing this behaviour was becoming saturated and subject animals would press the leaver to receive food only when hungry. On the other side, subject animals that were receiving a variety of rewards like different size or type of food kept pressing the lever like crazy in the anticipation on what would be the next reward.

If we study this experiment carefully we will see that it also appears in many cases of a human’s life and the consequent reactions that follow have to do with the problem solving nature of human in a similar reaction that subject animals had in the aforementioned experiment. People, when faced with an unpredictable positive feedback on an action like a reward, instinct tells them to do that action again. Once an action ends up to a predicted result, it is not fascinating any more and is just another action or tool available in the surrounding environment.

Research has shown that anticipation that occurs on the unpredictability and variety of rewards raises dopamine, a neurotransmitter chemical that is responsible for transmitting signals in between the nerve cells of the brain and can drive behaviour. Dopamine raise, is associated with pleasure, desire and habit and can be found in different rewarding behaviours that people usually do like eating, bragging and others. Recent study has shown that scientists were able to navigate rats by raising their reward feelings with electrodes on their brain fired by external radio signals. All these studies proved that usage of such techniques can affect the way people make choices and resulted to an extensive application of similar methodologies in the design of video games, mobile apps or business in order to increase addiction, engagement and eventually profits by driving user behaviour.

Read more…

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